Long-range weather forecasting

 Hi all

Does anyone know a reasonably reliable long-range weather forecasting site? I'm not talking about knowing what the conditions will be like on a certain day months in advance just being able to predict trends etc. I'm trying to work out when to take time off in the new year but ideally don't want it to be blowing it's arse off every day!

Cheers


Posts: 511

Date Joined: 23/04/14

Check the BOM website

Mon, 2021-10-25 11:18

 Go to the BOM website Climate data section www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml

You can select your location and it shows monthly long term statistics like daily average windspeed and direction at 9am and 3pm, rainfall, temp etc.

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davewillo's picture

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 Thanks Resurgence that's

Mon, 2021-10-25 12:15

 Thanks Resurgence that's really helpful. Should have had a look on their site before posting!

carnarvonite's picture

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Depends

Mon, 2021-10-25 12:06

 Lot depends on where you are aiming to travel to. For the north , they are predicting an above average cyclone season starting in December

davewillo's picture

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 Just locally Carnarvonite. I

Mon, 2021-10-25 12:24

 Just locally Carnarvonite. I know that Dec/Jan are usually as windy as hell but weren't this year and was trying to get a handle on whether it's likely to be a La Nina or El Nino etc.

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La Nina and El Nino

Mon, 2021-10-25 15:48

 There's another section in the BOM that talks about the indicators that lead to El Nino and La Nina conditions and.  Just search their site for it.

To save you some reading the indicators are showing a greater than 70% chance of another La Nina over this coming summer, which should mean a stronger and warmer Leeuwin Current and good offshore fishing for pelagics in the southern half of WA.  Of course it also means a greater chance of more cyclones.

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davewillo's picture

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 Thanks mate. What does La

Mon, 2021-10-25 17:02

 Thanks mate. What does La Nina usually mean in terms of wind conditions? Probably weaker sou'westers because of cooler overall temps?

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Not sure

Mon, 2021-10-25 19:39

I suspect the local wind conditions are driven more by daily local weather patterns than long term climate cycles.  Would be interesting to know.  The main climate aspect they tend to measure with respect to El Nino La Nina is rainfall across different parts of the country. 

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davewillo's picture

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 Yeah that's all I can find

Tue, 2021-10-26 11:46

 Yeah that's all I can find hence why I asked. Do you know what we had last summer as the winds were much better in December and January than normal. I know because I had a shoulder op and couldn't use my bloody boat on many glassed-off days!

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La Nina

Tue, 2021-10-26 14:12

Last summer was a mild La Nina event. 

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carnarvonite's picture

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Bunbury

Mon, 2021-10-25 18:26

 Living in Bunbury now, moved down in January after 20 odd years up around Carnarvon / Shark Bay area.

The wind up north starts from mid August and run till mid March, usually from Lancelin right through to the west coast at Exmouth. SE winds 15-20 knots turning SW 20 - 25+ knots mid morning, easing off after dark. 

 

Any window where the wind drops off you make the most of it and head out because its not going to last

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Sure is

Mon, 2021-10-25 20:21

 On the West coast any month with an R in it is guaranteed to be blowing it's tits off. Up here in the Torres Straights it's every damn month apart from three of em....... Thank fuck we're heading into the monsoon, just need to work out how to keep the rain off me during those months!. 

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davewillo's picture

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 Not so much in March and

Tue, 2021-10-26 11:47

 Not so much in March and April Chris. Definitely the norm Dec - Feb!

sea-kem's picture

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 Oh boo hoo Mr who gets to go

Tue, 2021-10-26 13:00

 Oh boo hoo Mr who gets to go fishing whenever he wants 

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Love the West!

davewillo's picture

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 I assume you're having a

Tue, 2021-10-26 15:04

 I assume you're having a crack at Chris there Andy?!

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Ha ha Andy.

Tue, 2021-10-26 15:07

 Got back from West Oz last Tuesday, I've managed to get out four times so far and tomorrow's looking good. Tamara has got a four day weekend this weekend and she's expecting to get out on the water four of those days!. 
Yolo Andy.

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 My wife understands why I clean my rods n reels in the shower....

 

sea-kem's picture

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 Nahhh good onya mate, just

Tue, 2021-10-26 16:17

 Nahhh good onya mate, just jealous. Enjoy!!

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Love the West!